CLMS MD Simon Barff has highlighted the potential for confirmation bias in the way
the Gambling Commission interprets data from the GSGB, joining gambling consultant Andrew Tottenham in expressing concern that “the numbers may be more about methodology than reality.”
CLMS managing director Simon Barff has highlighted evidence of confirmation bias in the way in which the Gambling Commission interprets the findings of the Gambling Survey for Great Britain, observing “the evidence doesn’t match the rhetoric.”
Noting that the regulator’s conclusions regarding harm appear to be based on what it had been hoping to find, Barff cited a recent report from gambling consultant Andrew Tottenham which raised concerns over the objectivity of the study.
“The recent release of the Gambling Survey for Great Britain has once again raised questions about the way gambling harm is measured in this country,” said Barff. “According to the GSGB, problem gambling rates have risen. Yet, when you dig into the detail, as Andrew Tottenham of Tottenham and Co. did in his September Tottenham Report, it becomes clear that the numbers may be more about methodology than reality.”
In the report, Tottenham wrote: “The Commission seems eager to treat [the experiments] as proof that the GSGB is the superior instrument … Meanwhile, the strongest and clearest finding, the topic salience effect, was largely downplayed.”
The topic salience effect is a cognitive phenomenon in which the human brain focuses disproportionately on information which is striking or emotionally resonant, even if it is not the most relevant in objective terms.
“In other words,” added Barff, “the conclusion came first, and the evidence was arranged to support it. The Sturgis experiments underpinning the GSGB review tell a more complicated story.”
Noting that when a survey is labelled “about gambling,” it attracts more gamblers and more engaged gamblers, thereby inflating harm rates, Barff also highlighted the specific methodology of the GSGB undermines comparison to other indexes of harm.
“Online self-completion surveys may elicit more admissions, but comparisons to the HSE (which used face-to-face with self-completion) don’t hold up.”
Meanwhile, CLMS data from more than 35,000 connected Category C machines, shows stakes have remained stable over the last 15 years, once inflation is accounted for, while value of play, time on machine, and cash collected show no significant spikes or shifts.
“This is not an industry spiralling into harm – it’s an industry that has remained remarkably consistent, even as technology has evolved.”
When the stats miss the facts
Simon Barff said… “This is not an industry spiralling into harm – it’s an industry that has remained remarkably consistent, even as technology has evolved…
