An Autumn Budget betting tax rise risks wiping out 40,000 jobs, diverting £8.4bn to unregulated markets, and cutting £3bn from UK economic output, warns a new report from Ernst & Young. The bookies are fighting back.

A new report from Ernst & Young warns that proposed government tax rises could devastate the industry, cost 40,000 jobs, and drive punters into the arms of the black market.

Commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council, the independent study forecasts that Treasury plans to raise the tax rate on betting would divert £8.4bn in stakes to unregulated operators and strip £3.1bn from the UK’s economic output. The findings have been submitted ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget on November 26, as the industry ramps up pressure on the Labour government to reconsider.

“It’s now clear these further tax rises are a direct threat to British jobs and economic growth,” commented BGC CEO Grainne Hurst. “The figures speak for themselves – tens of thousands of jobs lost, billions diverted to the black market, and a possible £3 billion hit to the economy.”

The report, Impacts of Changes to Betting and Gaming Taxation, challenges figures from the Social Market Foundation and Institute for Public Policy Research, which claim higher taxes could generate billions in new revenue. EY’s analysis, however, shows that once job losses, venue closures, and reduced corporation and National Insurance receipts are factored in, the Treasury’s net gain could shrink to under £500 million.

“Tax raids like those proposed would mean fewer betting shops, casinos and bingo halls, fewer jobs, and a huge boost to the growing, unsafe gambling black market, while not raising anywhere near the tax claimed,” concluded Hurst. “Balanced regulations and a stable tax regime guarantee a growing regulated sector. But these proposals would achieve the absolute opposite of that and undermine the very consumer protections that keep people safe by pushing customers towards the unregulated black market, where there are no safeguards, no tax receipts, no jobs, and no support for the sports we all love.”

Breaking the tax hike benefits myth

Grainne Hurst said……. “Tax raids like those proposed would mean fewer betting shops, casinos and bingo halls, fewer jobs, and a huge boost to the growing, unsafe gambling black market, while not raising anywhere near the tax claimed……