You don’t exactly need a crystal ball to feel the way the wind may be blowing throughout 2025 for Britain’s besieged hospitality industry. For their part, the boffins at tax and consultancy firm RSM UK have read the tea-leaves and posted a trading note anticipating (surprise, surprise) increased numbers of insolvencies in the coming year: as small players struggle to keep their heads above the water line that the singularly indifferent Rachel Reeves seems to be happy to let them flounder in.

“Inflation and operational pressures from 2023 have lingered, and businesses will need to contend with higher staff costs and operating expenses following the Autumn Budget, together with additional compliance changes under the Employment Rights Bill,” wrote the excellently-named Saxon Moseley, RSM’s leisure and hospitality wonk. “For vulnerable businesses, this could well be a step too far and we expect to see an uptick in insolvencies across the industry next year as a result.”

For Moseley, the shuttering of these smaller, independent sites is likely to lead to a concurrent uptick in new acquisitions, for those operators for pockets deep enough to weather the storm (or wait out the clock for a new chancellor). 

“Those unable to absorb or pass on the significant rises in tax and overhead costs are likely to struggle to remain viable,” he surmised. “Meanwhile, those with the scale and funding to navigate through these headwinds will emerge with less competition and opportunities to acquire rivals at knock down prices.”

Ah, isn’t that nice.