Oh the irony. In Mel Brooks’ classic comedy The Producers it was the desperate need to produce a flop with its disastrous theme song Springtime for Hitler and Germany. Well, chancellor Rachel Reeves produced her own flop this week in the form of an annual Spring-time statement on the UK economy. For Brooks, everybody laughed at the nonsense; but no-one’s laughing at Reeves’ spring-time rendition – it’s tears for fears in the business community and medium to low income households.
There’s definitely no spring in the step of any of Britain’s hospitality industries following this week’s Spring Statement as the chancellor opted to play politics over principles rather than practicalities over business survival.
It was not a fiscal moment to applaud and, indeed, you could almost hear the chorus of boos carefully crafted in the words of official statements issued by the trade bodies.
The most savage were sounded by UKHospitality and the BBPA: the former criticised the “lack of a clear growth plan for hospitality” and issued the warning that Reeves had “put high street jobs at risk”.
Emma McClarkin at the BBPA was equally damning, stating: “The Government missed the opportunity, has not listened to business, and we can now expect to see prices rise, jobs at risk, and growth downgraded.”
And she added the new common line of attack: “For a Government whose mission is growth, there is an alarming lack of a plan to boost the economy.”
In fairness, the Chancellor’s original plan – growth by taxing the last breath out of the hospitality sector – is surprisingly not working. And the OBR delivered a mortal blow to the Reeves strategy by slashing the UK’s growth prospects for 2025 by half to 1 percent.
Where the hell that growth will come from is uncertain: a defiant Reeves hopes it will come from cuts in welfare, department spending and a raid on tax evaders as outlined in her Commons speech on Wednesday.
The industry, on the other hand, was hoping it would come from a moment of sanity in the Reeves budgetary mindset – a deferral on the timing of the NIC rise and help on the business rates relief programme.
Hopes well and truly dashed there; this is the iron chancellor, a moniker slapped on Reeves by media wags who thought it both amusing and ironic to align her to Margaret Thatcher.
And yet she did live up to the title – she was not for turning on the National Insurance hike, no matter how many hospitality businesses might fall, jobs lost and business revenues slide.
For the chancellor, it was her economic credibility at stake. Her fiscal rules must not be broken.
This is one economic idealogue determined to stay on her course despite the very strong prospect of job losses producing less NIC; unemployed hospitality workers paying no tax and instead receiving government unemployment benefits; healthy businesses facing a downturn in trade and paying less CT; and those businesses already on the brink after the chancellor had talked the economy down and tanking confidence, actually going under and paying no taxes at all.
So, this is what a dogged commitment to fiscal rules looks like?
And if you didn’t know, Kate Nicholls at UKHospitality laid it out in simple terms: “Growth won’t just happen without a plan. Today’s statement was yet another missed opportunity to avoid an April cliff edge, which will level a devastating £3.4 billion annual increase to the sector’s tax bill. The Government’s own analysis shows the failure to address the employer NICs threshold will force businesses to freeze recruitment, reduce hours available for staff and reduce employment levels in the very sectors the Government needs to achieve its goal to get people off welfare.”
And Emma McClarklin stuck the paper umbrella into the cocktail of Treasury woe saying: “We now predict that, following the Spring Statement and taking into account the new costs coming into effect from April, the sector will now face an additional £70 million per month, the equivalent of 5,700 jobs per month. We can expect to see pubs close at a faster rate which will risk growth and jobs and hurt the communities who rely on them.”
That’s a couple of smacks across the Chancellor’s chops that will require a plaster – which she can hopefully repurpose and stick over the UK economy. Things are not looking good; and they’re looking far worse after a Spring Statement that was, shockingly, as buoyant in its delivery as it was disastrous in its potential fall-out.
This was no time for a chancellor of the exchequer to stand by her principles; this was a time to stand by her people. And with increased taxes, decreased household budgets, no control over rampant costs and constant verbage that everybody else is to blame – no wonder business confidence is hitting a low point.
But hold on, “there is still time for the Chancellor to act and avert this disaster”, pleaded Kate Nicholls.
Not with this chancellor.