The Office for Budget Responsibility has cautioned that the government’s revised tax framework may push consumers towards unlicensed operators and reduce Treasury revenues. 

New economic analysis from the independent public body projects that around 90 percent of the increased tax burden will be passed on to players, raising prices and reducing payouts across licensed platforms. The OBR forecasts that the resulting shift in consumer behaviour could cut expected Treasury revenue by roughly one-third, including an estimated £500m loss by 2029-2030.

The government, however, maintains that the changes will raise £1.1bn. The Betting and Gaming Council, supported by independent analysis from EY, has disputed that outlook. 

“The Government’s own figures show these tax plans will cause significant damage,” said BGC CEO Grainne Hurst. “Industry analysis based on modelling from EY finds that nearly 17,000 high-tech jobs will be lost across online betting and gaming, with over £6bn in stakes diverted to the black market – a 140bn increase in its size.

“These proposals also threaten shop closures, further job losses and a less competitive online market, meaning lower, not higher, long-term tax revenue,” Hurst concluded. “They also push more customers to the black market, where there are no protections, no taxes and no safeguards.”